It's been a long time since my last post here - I always check in to see who is posting and what everyone is up to these days. Time just hasn't been on my side over the last few months, but I am excited about the college season and figured now would be the time to come back and post a few.
The first weekend of the college season is 90% speculation, with no one really knowing a whole lot, so I hope that everyone keeps that in mind and takes it easy and doesn't blow their whole football bankroll in the opening week.
All plays for one unit - no more two unit and three unit plays.
THURSDAY NIGHT:
UTAH -18 Over Utah State
Got 18 at Canbet yesterday, and it looks to be still there today. My plays are based on projections of teams offenses and defenses, and their offensive "biases", and how these offensive biases match up with the opposition's ability to stop that bias. Utah was a balanced offensive team last year, but will probably pass more with Urban Meyer's spread offense running the show. Quite frankly, it doesn't matter, because Utah State probably won't be much better on defense than they were last year, where they ranked near the bottom in all defensive categories. Utah State is a passing offense, mostly because they are playing catchup in most games due to poor defensive play, but this passing offense is breaking in a new QB and faces a very tough Ute secondary, who I have projected as the 13th ranked pass D in the country. A reason to stay off of this one would be due to the questionable status of RB Marty Johnson for Utah, but I don't think it matters whether he plays or not.
Lean to Miami, FL -27.5, but won't play. LT playing right into Miami strength....pass D.
FRIDAY:
Passing - lean to the Under 55 in Toledo/UNLV. These defenses will be near top 20 overall I think.
SATURDAY:
WESTERN MICHIGAN +14 Over Michigan State
Michigan State is coming off of a very disappointing season last year, and with the return of Smoker after substance abuse treatment and new coach John L. Smith, most expect better from them. However, I think this game sets up well for WM, who brings a very nice arsenal of weapons on offense. They are a pass bias team, and the Spartan secondary was very giving last season. I don't think they will be much better in the secondary, losing a few experienced players back there, and I think WMU can match the Spartans score for score here. State will probably throw more than they did last year, as every indication from Smith is that they will be bombing away. WM has some good talent in the secondary and should be up for the task. Reasons to stay off this one - intangible factor of Michigan State looking to prove that last year was a fluke. In addition, MSU has dominated the MAC conference on a yearly basis.
SOUTHERN MISS +4 Over Cal
We have already seen Cal, and generally I think they proved a lot of people wrong about how bad they would suck. With a nationally televised game under their belt and a fair line at home against a team in their maiden voyage, I would imagine that Cal would get some backers here. I will be on the Southern Miss side here, as I think that the secondary of Southern Miss may be better than that of Kansas State, and should put a stop to the passing success of Cal QB Robertson. Cal did impress on offense, but defensively were anything but. They were rampaged by K State, and even though the Southern Miss offense isn't nearly as prolific, they have a solid QB that should be able to exploit the Cal secondary. Reasons to stay off - the "game under their belt" theory which gives an advantage to the team that has played one already. Also, Southern Miss has had some problem with OC Scherer's schemes according to Phil Steele.
SOUTH FLORIDA +17.5 Over Alabama
Got this yesterday, but I would play it at the 16 it is at now. Alabama had a horrendous offseason, and as always, has the pressure of the state to produce wins. But this is a tough spot for them, with a big lookahead to Oklahoma next week. South Florida comes in here as a passing team...a team that uses the no huddle offense, which can be difficult to prepare for. The USF QB Banks takes over for Blackwell, who was an amazing QB for USF, but Banks is supposedly a stronger armed QB and should be fine. If USF weren't a passing team and Alabama weren't a running team, there would be no way I would play this. USF strength on D is in its front 7, as it was simply awesome against the run last year. They won't be as good, but I think that Bama will try to take the pressure off of QB Croyle with its running game. The Alabama weakness on D this year is in the secondary, and I think that USF takes full advantage of it. Reasons to stay off - new QB in hostile environment could be a problem. If Banks isn't up to the task, it will be a long day. USF will be weaker against the run than last year....if they are much weaker than I think - Alabama offense scores a bunch here.
WASHINGTON STATE -28.5 Over Idaho
Washington State has to replace a star QB in Gesser, as well as deal with the departure of beloved coach Price. Both teams will air it out on offense, but one team has a lot of D against the pass, and one team doesn't. Idaho was awful on D last year, and probably won't improve, and even though Cougars should be a little worse on O, they should still score at will here. Cougars also lost Trufant in the secondary, but I think they will do well again against the pass, as everyone else returns from last year's secondary. Reasons to stay off - it's a lot of points to lay to a good offense, and if the secondary really misses Trufant badly, a backdoor cover or a 2 TD game isn't unlikely. Cougs have Notre Dame in South Bend next week as well.
MINNESOTA -30.5 Over Tulsa
The Gophers are getting the attention of many this season with their impressive rout of the Hogs last bowl season. Minnesota has the hogs up front and a huge stable of talented backs, so it is no surprise that they are run biased on offense. Tulsa was not up to the task on D last year, and there is no reason to think it gets any better this year, especially against the run where they are outmanned and severly outsized up front. Minnesota's D looks to be very well rounded, with no spot that can really be exploited, especially by an inferior offense.
Reasons to lay off - can't think of a whole lot here....it is a lot of points to lay with a running team, I guess.
SAN JOSE STATE +24.5 Over Florida
The boys from Gainesville should sleepwalk through this game, as they have to face the Hurricanes next week. I imagine Zook won't show much on offense, and quite frankly, this SJ State team isn't that horrible, although their effort against Grambling last week didn't thrill me. However, the Spartan pass defense looks to be much better than last season, and the Gators have to break in a new QB. So, I don't think the Gators hang a big number on the board here. The Florida pass D should be better than last year, but I think that they will be average at best in that department, meaning that SJ State should be able to move the ball through the air enough to cover the number. Reasons to lay off - Florida still has a lot of talent, and if SJ State plays like they did last week - it won't be pretty.
Saturday leans but no plays:
Boston College -12.5
Georgia/Clemson Over 49
Mississippi -13.5
Fresno State +20.5
North Texas +34.5
Arkansas State +29
Washington +8
I will be back with Sunday's and Monday's plays tomorrow or later today. Good luck to everyone this season and this week.
HW
The first weekend of the college season is 90% speculation, with no one really knowing a whole lot, so I hope that everyone keeps that in mind and takes it easy and doesn't blow their whole football bankroll in the opening week.
All plays for one unit - no more two unit and three unit plays.
THURSDAY NIGHT:
UTAH -18 Over Utah State
Got 18 at Canbet yesterday, and it looks to be still there today. My plays are based on projections of teams offenses and defenses, and their offensive "biases", and how these offensive biases match up with the opposition's ability to stop that bias. Utah was a balanced offensive team last year, but will probably pass more with Urban Meyer's spread offense running the show. Quite frankly, it doesn't matter, because Utah State probably won't be much better on defense than they were last year, where they ranked near the bottom in all defensive categories. Utah State is a passing offense, mostly because they are playing catchup in most games due to poor defensive play, but this passing offense is breaking in a new QB and faces a very tough Ute secondary, who I have projected as the 13th ranked pass D in the country. A reason to stay off of this one would be due to the questionable status of RB Marty Johnson for Utah, but I don't think it matters whether he plays or not.
Lean to Miami, FL -27.5, but won't play. LT playing right into Miami strength....pass D.
FRIDAY:
Passing - lean to the Under 55 in Toledo/UNLV. These defenses will be near top 20 overall I think.
SATURDAY:
WESTERN MICHIGAN +14 Over Michigan State
Michigan State is coming off of a very disappointing season last year, and with the return of Smoker after substance abuse treatment and new coach John L. Smith, most expect better from them. However, I think this game sets up well for WM, who brings a very nice arsenal of weapons on offense. They are a pass bias team, and the Spartan secondary was very giving last season. I don't think they will be much better in the secondary, losing a few experienced players back there, and I think WMU can match the Spartans score for score here. State will probably throw more than they did last year, as every indication from Smith is that they will be bombing away. WM has some good talent in the secondary and should be up for the task. Reasons to stay off this one - intangible factor of Michigan State looking to prove that last year was a fluke. In addition, MSU has dominated the MAC conference on a yearly basis.
SOUTHERN MISS +4 Over Cal
We have already seen Cal, and generally I think they proved a lot of people wrong about how bad they would suck. With a nationally televised game under their belt and a fair line at home against a team in their maiden voyage, I would imagine that Cal would get some backers here. I will be on the Southern Miss side here, as I think that the secondary of Southern Miss may be better than that of Kansas State, and should put a stop to the passing success of Cal QB Robertson. Cal did impress on offense, but defensively were anything but. They were rampaged by K State, and even though the Southern Miss offense isn't nearly as prolific, they have a solid QB that should be able to exploit the Cal secondary. Reasons to stay off - the "game under their belt" theory which gives an advantage to the team that has played one already. Also, Southern Miss has had some problem with OC Scherer's schemes according to Phil Steele.
SOUTH FLORIDA +17.5 Over Alabama
Got this yesterday, but I would play it at the 16 it is at now. Alabama had a horrendous offseason, and as always, has the pressure of the state to produce wins. But this is a tough spot for them, with a big lookahead to Oklahoma next week. South Florida comes in here as a passing team...a team that uses the no huddle offense, which can be difficult to prepare for. The USF QB Banks takes over for Blackwell, who was an amazing QB for USF, but Banks is supposedly a stronger armed QB and should be fine. If USF weren't a passing team and Alabama weren't a running team, there would be no way I would play this. USF strength on D is in its front 7, as it was simply awesome against the run last year. They won't be as good, but I think that Bama will try to take the pressure off of QB Croyle with its running game. The Alabama weakness on D this year is in the secondary, and I think that USF takes full advantage of it. Reasons to stay off - new QB in hostile environment could be a problem. If Banks isn't up to the task, it will be a long day. USF will be weaker against the run than last year....if they are much weaker than I think - Alabama offense scores a bunch here.
WASHINGTON STATE -28.5 Over Idaho
Washington State has to replace a star QB in Gesser, as well as deal with the departure of beloved coach Price. Both teams will air it out on offense, but one team has a lot of D against the pass, and one team doesn't. Idaho was awful on D last year, and probably won't improve, and even though Cougars should be a little worse on O, they should still score at will here. Cougars also lost Trufant in the secondary, but I think they will do well again against the pass, as everyone else returns from last year's secondary. Reasons to stay off - it's a lot of points to lay to a good offense, and if the secondary really misses Trufant badly, a backdoor cover or a 2 TD game isn't unlikely. Cougs have Notre Dame in South Bend next week as well.
MINNESOTA -30.5 Over Tulsa
The Gophers are getting the attention of many this season with their impressive rout of the Hogs last bowl season. Minnesota has the hogs up front and a huge stable of talented backs, so it is no surprise that they are run biased on offense. Tulsa was not up to the task on D last year, and there is no reason to think it gets any better this year, especially against the run where they are outmanned and severly outsized up front. Minnesota's D looks to be very well rounded, with no spot that can really be exploited, especially by an inferior offense.
Reasons to lay off - can't think of a whole lot here....it is a lot of points to lay with a running team, I guess.
SAN JOSE STATE +24.5 Over Florida
The boys from Gainesville should sleepwalk through this game, as they have to face the Hurricanes next week. I imagine Zook won't show much on offense, and quite frankly, this SJ State team isn't that horrible, although their effort against Grambling last week didn't thrill me. However, the Spartan pass defense looks to be much better than last season, and the Gators have to break in a new QB. So, I don't think the Gators hang a big number on the board here. The Florida pass D should be better than last year, but I think that they will be average at best in that department, meaning that SJ State should be able to move the ball through the air enough to cover the number. Reasons to lay off - Florida still has a lot of talent, and if SJ State plays like they did last week - it won't be pretty.
Saturday leans but no plays:
Boston College -12.5
Georgia/Clemson Over 49
Mississippi -13.5
Fresno State +20.5
North Texas +34.5
Arkansas State +29
Washington +8
I will be back with Sunday's and Monday's plays tomorrow or later today. Good luck to everyone this season and this week.
HW
